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Earth Spinning

North Atlantic Oscillation

The NAO teleconnection describes the degree of negative correlation in slp and in pressures of heights up to the ~500mb level between the subtropical Azores High and subpolar Icelandic Low. It is a yearly leading mode of low frequency circulation variability across the northern hemisphere. Positive phases represent a strengthening of these centers where more robust circulation, in figure-8 style rotations, is common around the IL and AH. This corresponds to  a more  northerly location of the jetstream. For the US in winter, this can mean more mild (generally warmer, drier) conditions. This is especially apparent in the north and east of the country. In negative phases, the jetstream shifts further south as the IL and AH pressure centers weaken. These conditions can produce more severe (colder, wetter) winters in the US, especially along the eastern coast. However, the storms that are experienced are generally more sporadic in their occurrence.
 

Perhaps the best time series index available to measure the strength and persistence of the NAO is available through the Climate Prediction Center. This index accounts for the inherent spatial variability and seasonality of the pattern, as opposed to the many other indices that are  based on point location observations. The advantage of this index is that is stems from a RPCA procedure of the standardized 500mb height anomalies in the region of 20-90ºN.

 

One problem with currently available NAO indices is that a long-term trend exists within the time series. This trend biases the index prior to ~1979 toward negative values and, following 1979, toward positive values. It is difficult at this stage to definitively say what is causing the long term trend. Perhaps it is a global change signal. However, it is crucial to remove the noise from the index before using it in any long term investigation. In addition, winter values are especially biased so the index must be adjusted before any NAO winter examinations. I'm in the process of developing a new NAO index that has the trend removed. For more info. on this, see my 'research projects' tab.

Get the CPC Index.

NAO time series in winter (jfm), 1950-present.
NAOtimeseries.jpg

Correlation of NAO to air temperature in US winters.

naoairt19502005decmar.gif
note this is long term: 1950-2005

Correlation of NAO to precipitation rate in US winters.


naoprcp19502005decmar.gif
note this is long term: 1950-2005


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